FXUS25 KWNC 161330
PMDDRO
US DROUGHT MONITOR DISCUSSION
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
830 AM EST THU 16 FEB 2012
NATIONAL DROUGHT SUMMARY FEBRUARY 14, 2012 NORTHEAST: LIKE
LAST WEEK, ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION, IF
ANY, FELL ON THE REGION. AS A RESULT, D0 WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE
PART OF WESTERN NEW YORK, WHERE SOME LONGER-TERM DEFICITS WERE
NOTED. FARTHER SOUTH, D0 WAS INTRODUCED IN PART OF SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS. MOST OF THIS REGION ONLY RECEIVED ONE-HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST 60 DAYS.
SOUTH ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGIONS: DURING THE
LAST TWO WEEKS, 2 TO LOCALLY OVER 5 INCHES OF RAIN FELL ON
SMALL SECTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA, PROMPTING IMPROVEMENTS TO D0 IN SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS AND D1 FARTHER NORTH. STILL, A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS
IN SOUTH FLORIDA RECORDED LESS THAN HALF OF NORMAL RAINFALL
SINCE NOVEMBER 1, 2011, INCLUDING THE CITIES OF PALM BEACH AND
FORT LAUDERDALE. IN ADDITION, 1 OR 2 INCHES FELL ON MUCH OF THE
LOUISIANA BAYOU, ALTHOUGH NO IMPROVEMENT WAS INTRODUCED HERE,
WHERE SUBSTANTIAL LONG-TERM DEFICITS REMAIN. SEVERAL TENTHS
OF AN INCH FELL ON OTHER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND IN
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI, WHERE KEEPING
DRYNESS AND DROUGHT ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. UNFORTUNATELY,
VERY LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION FELL FROM THE NORTHERN TIER OF
FLORIDA /INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE/ NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. AS A RESULT, D4 WAS EXPANDED SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO MORE OF SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA,
IN ADDITION TO EASTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. MUCH OF
THIS REGION RECEIVED LESS THAN HALF OF NORMAL RAINFALL DURING
THE LAST 60 DAYS, AND 6-MONTH DEFICITS TOPPED 12 INCHES IN
MANY AREAS. FOR THE 1-YEAR PERIOD THROUGH EARLY FEBRUARY,
TALLAHASSEE, FL MEASURED ABOUT 32 INCHES OF RAIN, ABOUT 5
INCHES BELOW THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION,
DOTHAN, AL REPORTED 33 INCHES, ONLY ABOUT 2 INCHES LOWER THAN
THE PREVIOUS RECORD. FARTHER NORTH, THERE WAS SOME EXPANSION
OF D0 AND D1 CONDITIONS IN CENTRAL SECTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA.
THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND MOST OF LOUISIANA: MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINS EXCEEDING 1 INCH FELL ON MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
AS WELL AS ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERNMOST AND CENTRAL PARTS
OF THE STATE. DESPITE THE FACT THESE RAINS BROUGHT 30-DAY
TOTALS TO OVER 5 INCHES /AND OVER 10 IN ISOLATED SPOTS/
IN SOME EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS, ONLY MODEST
REGIONAL IMPROVEMENT SEEMED WARRANTED, SINCE 6-MONTH TOTALS
REMAINED MORE THAN 8 INCHES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE
D2 TO D4 AREAS. AS A RESULT, LAKE SOMERVILLE REMAINED AT
ONLY 59 PERCENT OF CAPACITY, THE LOWEST SINCE RECORDS BEGAN
IN 1990. IN CONTRAST, ONE AREA IN AND AROUND SAN ANTONIO
WAS IMPROVED TO D1 AFTER MODERATE RAINFALL. THE BEXAR INDEX
WELL HAS RISEN 9 FEET IN THE PAST MONTH, AND IS OVER 20 FEET
ABOVE THE LOW RECORDED LAST SUMMER. IN ADDITION, THE EDWARDS
AQUIFER ROSE TO ITS HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE LATE APRIL 2011.
A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS IN THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS KEPT
LAST WEEKS DROUGHT ASSESSMENTS INTACT. THE NORTHERN PLAINS:
ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION LAST WEEK MEANT
DROUGHT CONDITIONS EITHER PERSISTED OR INTENSIFIED. D0 EXPANDED
WESTWARD THROUGH PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
WHILE D2 CONDITIONS WERE EXTENDED SLIGHTLY INTO EASTERN PARTS
OF THE STATE. MANY OF THE D2 AREAS RECORDED LESS THAN HALF OF
NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE LAST 60 DAYS. SINCE AUGUST 1,
SIOUX FALLS, SD RECEIVED ONLY 3.6 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION, THE
THIRD LOWEST FOR THE PERIOD IN ROUGHLY 100 YEARS OF RECORDS.
WEST: MODERATE PRECIPITATION /OVER 1 INCH/ FELL ON PARTS OF
NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO, CENTRAL AND WESTERN COLORADO, AND
ADJACENT WYOMING. ELSEWHERE, HOWEVER, ONLY A FEW AREAS OUTSIDE
CALIFORNIA MEASURED OVER 0.5 INCH. THE WEEKS PRECIPITATION,
IN ADDITION TO A RE-ASSESSMENT OF OVERALL CONDITIONS, PROMPTED
THE ELIMINATION OF D3 CONDITIONS IN NORTHEAST ARIZONA, AND
REDUCTIONS IN THE D0 TO D2 AREAS HERE AND IN NORTHWESTERN NEW
MEXICO. DROUGHT CONDITIONS REMAINED UNCHANGED IN THE REST OF
THE WEST DESPITE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND
3 INCHES IN THE SIERRA NEVADA, WHERE NORMAL ARE QUITE LARGE.
HAWAII: BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION FELL ON SOME
SECTIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN BIG ISLAND, NORTHEASTERN MAUI,
SOUTHERN LANAI, AND SOUTHEASTERN KAUAI, WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
TOTALS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE. PASTURE AND VEGETATION CONDITIONS
HAVE IMPROVED RECENTLY IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BIG
ISLAND. LOOKING AHEAD: DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS /FEBRUARY 16
20, 2012/, MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION /1 TO LOCALLY OVER
3 INCHES/ IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS A LARGE AREA FROM SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS EASTWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHEASTWARD
INTO SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA. AMOUNTS OVER 0.5 INCH ARE FORECAST
FOR IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT SECTIONS INCLUDING CENTRAL TEXAS, THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA, AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA, BUT LESSER
AMOUNTS SHOULD FALL ON THE OTHER AREAS OF DRYNESS AND DROUGHT
ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS 48 STATES. FOR THE ENSUING 5 DAYS, THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/ 6-10 DAY INDICATED THAT THE ODDS
FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN MUCH THE SAME AREA AS DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS. FARTHER WEST, SUBNORMAL AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED
FROM SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH WESTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWARD TO THE MEXICAN BORDER.
AUTHOR: RICHARD TINKER, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
DROUGHT INTENSITY CATEGORIES...
D0 ABNORMALLY DRY...
D1 MODERATE DROUGHT...
D2 SEVERE DROUGHT...
D3 EXTREME DROUGHT...
D4 EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT
DROUGHT TYPES...
USED ONLY WHEN IMPACTS DIFFER...
A AGRICULTURAL...
H HYDROLOGIC.
$$
