000
FNUS21 KWNS 221642
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1041 AM CST WED FEB 22 2012
VALID 221700Z - 231200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN CO / SWRN KS...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR W TX / SERN NM...
ONLY CHANGE THIS FORECAST UPDATE IS TO INCLUDE PARTS OF SERN CO/SWRN
KS AND FAR W TX/SERN NM IN CRITICAL AREAS. MODIFIED FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS SERN CO AND WRN PORTIONS OF KS SHOW STEEP 0-3 KM
LAPSE RATES WITHIN A BELT OF INCREASING TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WITH
HEIGHT. AS TEMPS RISE WELL INTO THE 60S AND NEAR 70 DEG F...RH WILL
FALL INTO THE 16-22 PERCENT RANGE AS SUSTAINED WINDS STRENGTHEN TO
THE 15-25 MPH /GUSTS 30-40 MPH/--RESULTING IN SPORADIC LOWER-END
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. FARTHER S ACROSS TX/NM...A
WARMER/DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROMOTE RH TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS. LATEST EXPERIMENTAL STORM-SCALE ENSEMBLE /SSEO/
SHOWS HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF STRONG WINDS/LOW RH THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. IN SUMMARY...MODESTLY STRONG WLY FLOW OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO THE W WILL SUPPORT A FEW HOURS OF LOWER-END CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AS SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 MPH
/GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH/.
..SMITH.. 02/22/2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CST WED FEB 22 2012/
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE-SCALE UPPER
TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AS A POWERFUL UPPER JET
ENTERS THE PAC NW...WHILE ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EWD
TOWARDS THE MID-MS RIVER VALLEY. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...W-NWLY
DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS AND RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS
SWRN CA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
...ERN CO...KS...NRN OK...WRN MO...TX/OK PANHANDLES...
LOW/MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL PLAINS AS
AN UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY AMPLIFIES OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. MODERATE TO
STRONG WLY DOWNSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW /20-30 MPH N TO 15-20 MPH
S/ WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DRY AND WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER TODAY...WHILE TEMPERATURES HEAT TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
/LOW 60S N TO LOW 70S S/. THESE CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR AN ELEVATED TO
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF
E-CNTRL CO AND SWRN KS...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE JUXTAPOSED FAVORABLY WITH THE LOWEST RH AND WARMEST
TEMPERATURES...PRECLUDING A CRITICAL UPGRADE ATTM.
...FAR W TX...SERN NM...
A ZONE OF MODERATELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW /E.G. 20 KTS AT 850 MB/
WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED SFC WINDS OF 15-20 MPH TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF FAR W TX AND SERN NM. WARM TEMPERATURES WITHIN A DRY AIR MASS
WILL RESULT IN MIN RH VALUES RANGING FROM 8-14 PERCENT. LOCALLY
CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY OCCASIONALLY BE OBSERVED /PARTICULARLY OVER
THE GUADALUPE MTNS/...BUT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO WEAK TO WARRANT A CRITICAL DELINEATION ATTM.
...COASTAL RANGES/FOOTHILLS OF SWRN CA...
EARLY MORNING RAWS SFC OBS SHOW LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS /30-40 MPH/
OCCURRING WITHIN THE SAN GABRIEL AND SANTA MONICA RANGES. THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT OFFSHORE N-NELY FLOW
ACROSS SRN CA AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIXED OVER THE WRN GREAT
BASIN. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THE DAY...RESULTING IN REDUCED WIND SPEEDS BY EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER...A LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST THROUGH
AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN FAVORED CANYONS/PASSES AS WIND GUSTS
OF 30-40 MPH ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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