MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0143
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0549 PM CST WED FEB 22 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...NE AL...SE TN...FAR NW AL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 222349Z - 230115Z
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE SOME OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS FROM MIDDLE TO ERN TN SWD ACROSS NRN AL AND FAR NW GA.
HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NECESSARY
ACROSS THE REGION.
A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ALONG AN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY WHERE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MUCAPE VALUES FROM 250 TO 750
J/KG. THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
WITH WSR-88D-VWPS SHOWING 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 70 TO 80 KT. THIS
COMBINED WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.0 TO
7.5 C/KM SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGER
CORES EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. EWD STORM MOTION OF 40 KT WILL HELP
CREATE A WIND DAMAGE THREAT ESPECIALLY AS THE LINE BECOMES NEARLY
CONTINUOUS. SUPERCELLS WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO
EXIST ON THE SRN END OF THE LINE WHERE INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED AND
THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN EARLY THIS EVENING.
..BROYLES.. 02/22/2012
ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...
LAT...LON 35928438 36378455 36558536 35888624 34918734 34258779
33898760 33648692 33748625 34138579 34718521 35348467
35928438
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